What kind of Europe for the next five years 2024-2029? Part II

The European Commission.

Naturally, it was within the framework of this strategic programme that the political guidelines for the next European Commission, 2024-2029, were set out in the speech entitled "Choosing Europe", with which Ursula von der Leyen presented herself to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 18 July. With 401 votes in favour out of 720, i.e. 40 more than the absolute majority, she was elected more comfortably than in 2019, when she only had a margin of 9 votes. Although the vote was secret, we can assume that the following voted against her: Jordan Bardella's Patriotes, Orban's Europe of Sovereign Nations, the 33 non-attached members (the far right) and the radical right of the conservatives and reformers (Ms Meloni's ECR), plus Manon Aubry's far left The Left. It can be deduced from this that a number of MEPs from the current majority did not vote for her, including the Social Democrats (S&D), the centrist Renaissance group and the EPP, her political group, joined by most of the Green MEPs.

Ursula von der Leyen's competitors, who were much further to the right (Croatian and Greek prime ministers), she appears to be the most centrist in a context where the EP has become much more right-wing, if not more so.

It has undertaken to apply the recently adopted "Asylum and Migration" package (but already called into question by several countries), and has not given up on the "Green Deal", making a gesture in favour of the German car industry (non-polluting synthetic fuel after 2035 for internal combustion engines).

The MEPs wanted to ensure that the rejection of the outgoing President would not add a further element of instability to the current international and economic geopolitical context, which is likely to be further exacerbated by the US elections and ongoing wars.

The main sections of the guidelines are as follows:

1. A new plan for sustainable prosperity and competitiveness for Europe (making it easier for businesses to do business; impact for clean industry; improving the distinctiveness and resilience of our economy; boosting productivity through the spread of digital technologies; putting research and innovation at the heart of our economy; boosting investment tenfold; tackling skills and labour shortages).
2. A new era for European defence and security (making the European Defence Union a reality; a Union strategy for crisis preparedness; a safer and more secure Europe; stronger common borders; fair and firm action on migration)
3. Supporting people and strengthening our societies and our social model (social equity in a modern economy; restoring the unity of our society, supporting our young people; a union of equality...).
4. Preserving our quality of life (food safety, water and nature, adapting to and preparing for climate change and solidarity in this area)
5. Protecting our democracy, defending our values (strengthening the rule of law; putting citizens at the heart of our democracy)
6. Europe in the world: using our power and our partnerships; enlargement as a geopolitical imperative; a more strategic approach to our neighbours; a new foreign economic policy; reshaping multilateralism for today's world)
7. Reaching our goals together and preparing our Union for the future (a new budget to match our ambitions; an ambitious reform programme for Europe; acting in cooperation with the European Parliament).

The composition of her College of Commissioners was more laborious than last time: indeed, Mrs von der Leyen had once again sought a balance between men and women and had therefore asked the Member States to put forward two candidates - when the current Commissioner was not being reappointed. Unfortunately, few Member States complied with this insistent request. The resulting college, which obviously remains to be approved candidate by candidate and then the entire college by the relevant European Parliament committees, is therefore made up of 11 women, including the president and four vice-presidents, and 16 men, including two vice-presidents, i.e. 40 % women, compared to the 22 % proposed by the Member States. Only 6 were already members of the committee, so 21 are new candidates.

There is also a political imbalance between the weight of the political groups that emerged from the elections and the number of candidate Commissioners belonging to each: 12 candidate Commissioners are Christian Democrats, like the President. It is true that the EPP came out on top in the elections, but there were only 4 S&Ds, who came second, 5 liberals from Renew, who are now fifth in the Chamber, 4 independents and even the Italian candidate from Mrs Meloni's CRE group, the 'moderate' extreme right, who would inherit the cohesion and reform portfolio, i.e. the European structural funds. The cordon sanitaire has been breached! Just like in the EP for this group.

All in all, the Commission is becoming much more right-wing..

But it is obviously the content of the portfolios allocated to them that is most significant.

Concerning the vice-presidencies :

As first vice-president, Estonian Kaja Kallas has been proposed by the European Council for the post of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

The second VP, Stéphane Séjourné, a short-lived French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs in the Attal government, is the last-minute replacement for Thierry Breton, whom Mrs von der Leyen no longer wanted. France, which complied, obtained a VP in exchange for giving up its outgoing Commissioner Thierry Breton. He has been appointed to the Prosperity and Industrial Strategy portfolio.

Spain has been awarded a VP to Teresa Ribera, until now No. 2 in the Spanish government, who will be responsible for a fair and competitive clean transition.

Finland will have a vice-president responsible for technological sovereignty, security and democracy.

Romania will look after people, skills and preparedness

The 6^th VP is the Italian R. Fitto (who was part of the Italian government) will be in charge of the very rich portfolio of cohesion and reforms, the second largest allocation in the European budget.

As far as the Commissioners are concerned, the first to note is the Commissioner Lithuanian A. Kubilius who will be in charge of the all-important defence and space. He will have to coordinate with Estonian VP Kaja Kallas.

As for Austria, its candidate Magnus Brunner will have to concentrate on implementing the pact on  asylum and migrationThis will be complicated by the outcome of the recent Austrian elections, which were heavily weighted towards the far right, which is hostile to the pact.

The Croatian Commissioner will be the first to take charge of the new portfolio for Mediterranean. The Dane will be the first housing, new portfolio and energy. The Hungarian commissioner will be in charge of the animal health and welfare. Close to Orban, he is not a member of his party.

The Irishman will be responsible for democracy, justice and the rule of law, a portfolio previously held by Belgian Commissioner Reynders. The Belgian representative is Mme Hadja Lahbib in charge of humanitarian aid and crises. Latvian V. Dombrowski wins his third term of office the economy and productivity.

Luxembourg-based C.Hansen will be responsible for agriculture and food ; le maltais s’occupera de la culture de la jeunesse et du sport ainsi que de l’équité intergénérationnelles ; le néerlandais sera changé du climat, de la neutralité carbone et de la croissance propre ; le très important portefeuille the budget, de la lutte anti fraude et l’administration revient au polonais, Piotr Serafin : il devra notamment préparer le budget à long terme, le cadre financier pluriannuel de 7 ans ; la portugaise Mme Albuquerque s’occupera du très important portefeuille des services financiers de l’épargne et de l’investissement ; le Tchèque des partenariats internationaux ; le Slovaque Marco Sefkovic, à son quatrième mandat, s’occupera cette fois-ci du commerce et de la sécurité économique ;  le slovène de l’élargissement et du voisinage oriental et enfin la suédoise de l’environnement ,de la résilience en matière d’eau et d‘une économie circulaire compétitive.

On le voit les  « petits » pays notamment baltes reçoivent des portefeuilles extrêmement importants pour faire face à la Russie par le soutien à l’Ukraine. Les grands pays, France, Espagne et Pologne sont bien servis aussi. Il y a une sorte de rééquilibrage nord-sud et surtout ouest-est.

Les auditions des commissaires auront lieu durant le mois novembre. Il est prévu que lors de la session parlementaire du 16 au 19 décembre l’ensemble du collège sera soumis aux votes du Parlement européen, et la nouvelle Commission pourrait entrer en fonction le 1^er janvier de l’année prochaine. Les expériences précédentes montrent que le Parlement n’hésite pas à rejeter l’une ou l’autre candidature. Cela peut être le cas également cette année avec la candidature italienne de M. Fitto provenant de l’extrême droite de Mme Meloni.

Conclusions provisoires

Il faut hélas ! constater la montée de l’extrême droite dans toutes les institutions. Cela est  certes conforme à l’évolution des opinions publiques de la plupart des États membres mais Il faut continuer à lutter contre ces extrêmes avant qu’il ne soit trop tard. Car le but de ces extrêmes  est de remplacer la recherche d’une souveraineté européenne par le rétablissement de  multiples souverainetés nationales, en fermant nos frontières et désignant les migrants, et parfois tout simplement « l’autre » comme boucs émissaires. Notre maison commune risque alors de s’effondrer et il sera trop tard pour constater, comme le fait douloureusement le Royaume Uni, que séparément les États européens ne pèsent plus grand-chose sur la scène mondiale, et que ce n’est qu’unis que nous pourrons préserver notre mode de vie européen et les valeurs de la démocratie et de l’état de droit.

Eric PARADIS