What kind of Europe for the next five years, 2024-2029?

Every five years the European landscape is renewed. The European elections lead to a new Parliament. At the same time, the European Council, bringing together the Heads of State or Government, draws up a new programme for the next period, in this case 2024-2029, and proposes to Parliament a candidate for the Presidency of the European Commission and for the post of New Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The European Commission has also been largely recomposed. A new college and a new work programme, based on that of the European Council, have been presented to the European Parliament. The first step for this new Commission is, of course, the election of a new President by the plenary session in the month following the European elections. This year, on 18 July, the European Parliament elected Ursula von der Leyen after debating with her on the basis of the political guidelines for the next European Commission 2024-2029 set out in a document entitled "Europe's Choice". During the summer, the reappointed President asked the Member States to put forward their national candidates for the new team of Commissioners. The difficulty of the exercise led to some delay in communicating these candidates, and it was not until 17 September that Mrs von der Leyen was able to present her proposal for the new team and their respective portfolios. It is regrettable that the President's wish to be able to choose between a male and a female candidate could not be met, which unfortunately prevented her from presenting a Commission that respected gender equality. There will therefore be fewer women than in the previous Commission.

By looking first at the results of the European Parliament elections, then at the conditions of the re-election in July of its President, Mrs Metsola, accompanied by the election of the Vice-Presidents and the rest of the EP management team, followed by the formation of the new political groups, and the allocation of the chairs of the parliamentary committees, certain new orientations, as well as majorities that are more relative than during the previous legislature, we will see that certain policies, particularly in the areas of agriculture, the environment and of course immigration, will be impacted by this new configuration of the Parliament.

Secondly, we will be analysing the new Commission and, above all, its new architecture, with some entirely new portfolios to tackle the immediate challenges and those of the next five years, with the imperative of securing the support of a parliamentary majority still in favour of European integration. All the Commissioners-designate will be subject to hearings by the parliamentary committees concerned with the areas assigned to them by the President, before concluding with a vote on the College as a whole.

The new European Council, marked primarily by the appointment of its new President, Antonio Costa, a former social-democrat Prime Minister of Portugal, will also be examined, showing the evolution of the forces present and in particular the increased weight of the far right, a reflection of national governmental situations.

 

The European Parliament :

Although the majority of the European Parliament remains in favour of European integration, the elections were marked by a strong surge in support from far-right parties, most of which are Eurosceptic and in favour of national rather than European sovereignty. As a result, the pro-European groups (EPP, S&D, the liberals of Renew Europe and the Greens) will have to work together to find the compromises needed for each vote, and will sometimes have to face headwinds that could oppose their priorities, weaken or even distort them, or simply prevent them from being implemented.

The participation rate rose very slightly to just over 50 % (51.5 %).

The European People's Party came out on top in these elections with around 26 % of the vote. 188 of the 718 MEPs come from national parties that are members of the EPP: the conservatives of the CDU CSU, of which Mrs von der Leyen is a member, come first, followed by Poland (23) and Spain (22).

The expected surge from the far right resulted in a total of 187 far-right MEPs, just one less than the EPP, divided into the following groups:

- The European Conservatives and Reformists (CRE) ended up with 78 MEPs (compared with 68 previously), including the 24 from Fratelli d'Italia, Mrs Meloni's party in power in Italy. They are followed by the 20 Polish MEPs from Mr Kaczinsky's PiS party. The Reformers and Conservatives group (CRE) can be described as moderate eurosceptics, while the other groups are clearly more radical.

-A new group was formed under the aegis of V.Orban: " Patriots for Europe "This group comprises 84 MPs, including the former members of the now disbanded Identité et Démocratie (ID) group, which is dominated by Ms Le Pen's Rassemblement National (30), whose president, Mr Bardella, heads the group. This group is now the 3^th of the EP.

-The Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party also succeeded in forming a new group with its own 14 MPs, called "Europe of sovereign nations, with 25 MEPs, becoming the most radical far-right group in the new EP clearly anti European, immigration, green pact, aid to Ukraine, abortion, feminism, LGBTQ, federalism - in short, ultraconservative and very friendly towards Russia.

 Among the common features of far-right programmes are the promotion of traditional family values (against voluntary termination of pregnancy, opposition to gender policies and gay marriage), in terms of religion and culture: reference to religious roots (mainly Christian) and culture (invention or rewriting of a national novel). There is also criticism of the political and economic elites, who are accused of betraying the people, leading to calls for institutional reforms to bring power closer to the people (popular referendum). They also call for selective social protection that favours nationals or excludes immigrants altogether. To varying degrees, they all want to: strengthen the powers of the Member States at the expense of the European institutions; establish a more restrictive policy on migration and asylum, insisting on border controls both outside and inside the Schengen area; less regulation; call into question the climate objectives and support farmers by revising the CAP.

Normally, like Mrs Meloni, who is rather Atlanticist, the CRE group is in favour of supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The others range from moderate support to rejection of this aid.

If we look to the left, we find the S&D Group of Social Democrats stable with 19% of MPs (136 compared with 140 before).

The centre :Renew Europe (77 MPs or 11% ) and the Greens (53 or 7%) were the big losers in these elections, which were clearly down on the previous legislature (102 and 71 MPs respectively).

. The extreme GUE left (46 MPs, i.e. 5% compared with 37 before) and the Non-attached Members (33) complete the picture.

 Despite this, the pro-European parties have significantly more MEPs (454) than far-right groups (187).

Finally, it should be noted that the outgoing President, Mrs Metsola, was re-elected without difficulty to her post. From the far right, only 3 RCEs were elected to the EP's governing body, the Bureau, including 2 vice-presidents. An examination by parliamentary committee shows that few presidencies and vice-presidencies were granted to the far right, represented by only 4 RCEs. A "cordon sanitaire" has therefore been put in place for the Europe of sovereign nations, and there are no Patriots.

The European Council :

At its meeting on 27 June, the European Council elected Antonio Costa as President of the European Council (and of the Eurozone) for the period from 1 January to 31 December.^er December 2024 to 31 May 2027. It also adopted the decision proposing to the European Parliament the candidature of Ursula von der Leyen for the office of President of the European Commission. With regard to appointments, the European Council considered that Ms Kaja Kallas of Latvia is the appropriate candidate for the post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, subject to the agreement of the President-elect of the Commission. Finally, it adopted the Union's strategic programme for the period 2024-2029.

Made up of heads of state or government, the Council obviously reflects the political situation in the Member States. Two countries are led by far-right leaders: Italy (G.Meloni-FdI) and Hungary (V.Orban-Fidesz).

But many other governments include representatives of far-right parties and their survival often depends on their support. In Slovakia (R. Fico) is an ally of the far-right Slovak Nationalist Party. In Sweden, the government depends on the support of the Sweden Democrats, the second largest parliamentary party. In Finland, the centre-right Petteri Orpo depends on the far-right Finnish Party. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, whose far-right party came out on top in the national parliamentary elections, failed to be appointed Prime Minister, but Dick Schoof is under the control of a coalition of parties including G. Wilders' and right-wing parties, including Mark Rutte's VVD, which has long represented the Netherlands on the European Council. In Austria, the FPÖ, led by Herbert Kickl, is on the brink of power against the conservatives represented by the current Chancellor (Nehammer), having won 29% of the vote. This party was founded in the 1950s by former SS and other Nazi groups. Kickl promised that if he won he would govern as Volkskanzler, a term once used by Adolf Hitler. The FPÖ is Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant and a supporter of Russia. Austria would thus join the bloc of eurosceptics and friends of Russia, which now includes several Central and Eastern European countries and will probably be joined by the Czech Republic after next year's elections.

There are still a number of countries currently represented by governments that declare themselves to be pro-European but favour anti-migrant policies: Germany (Scholz),Belgium( De Croo then probably De Wever); Denmark( Mette Christensen); Spain( Pedro Sanchez- PSOE) Portugal (Luis Montenegro); Greece (Mitsotakis)Ireland( S.Harris) Luxembourg (Luc Frieden); Poland (D.Tusk) and France (E.Macron but with a Barnier government under the watchful eye of the Rassemblement National). The 3 Baltic countries, which are the first line of defence against a threatening Russia and Belarus, are busy putting up barriers to defend themselves, and although they have welcomed and integrated Ukrainian refugees, they are also taking this anti-immigrant line, as are Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Croatia.

In short, the European Council is moving to the right, and even to the ultra-right. And they're looking for scapegoats... for the moment, following their voters' lead, immigrants are to blame for all their problems: the budgetary crisis and the crisis in purchasing power, climate disruption, the damaging effects of globalisation with the loss of traditional points of reference, the irruption of artificial intelligence... All we'd have to do is close our national borders, abolish the Schengen area, and all our problems would be solved if we could just get together!

The European Council has no legislative powers, but takes very important decisions and requires unanimity.

On the other hand, the negotiations were conducted in a more restricted circle, excluding Mrs Meloni for example.

In addition, the chairmanship of the Council of the European Union[1] (also known as the Council of Ministers) rotates and changes every 1^erJuly each year. It was Hungary's turn in the second half of 2024, and V. Orban made the most of it by inviting himself to the homes of "the world's great and good" on the pretext of a "peace mission" that nobody had given him: Zelensky in Kiev, to whom he called for a ceasefire; Putin, of course, but also Xi Jinping and Trump, at his Mar a Lago residence. Since then, Trump has been full of praise for Orban, whom he considers the best European head of state! Americans know more about V. Orban than any other European leader, thanks to Trump!

With regard to the 2024-2029 strategic programme, the European Council agreed on the priorities that it invites the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission to implement during the next institutional cycle. The Union's next multiannual financial framework must take these priorities into account so that the European Union's budget is adapted to the future and that European responses are provided to European challenges. The Council has undertaken to work on the introduction of new own resources. These priorities are outlined below:

1. A free and democratic Europe: defending European values within the Union and remaining true to our values at global level
2. A strong and secure Europe: ensuring coherent and influential external action; strengthening our security and defence and protecting our citizens; preparing for an enlarged and stronger Union; adopting a global approach to migration and border management.
3. A prosperous and competitive Europe: strengthening our competitiveness; ensuring the success of the twofold ecological and digital transition; promoting an environment conducive to innovation and favourable to business; moving forward together.

 

Eric Paradis

Distinguished Director of AEPL

 

[1] The Council of Ministers

The Council of the Union (of Ministers) The Treaty of Lisbon introduces a double majority system, with Article 16 TEU stipulating that a qualified majority "shall be defined as 55 % of the States, i.e. at least 16 States representing 65 % of the population of the Union (i.e. 292 million out of 449), it being stipulated that a blocking minority must include at least four members of the Council, failing which the qualified majority shall be deemed attained". Decisions which are not taken on a proposal from the Commission.

(CFSP) must bring together 72% from the States (19).